AI Predictions

CS2-APEX v1.5

CQ-GESUS-CS2-APEX v1.5 — calibrated win probabilities + SHAP explainability on 118,000+ match history. AUC 0.6928, isotonic calibration.

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Live Artifacts

Model Intelligence Suite

● 2 models

T1 matches → CQ-GESUS-APEX-T1 v1 | T2/T3 matches → CQ-GESUS-APEX v1.5

CQ-GESUS

CQ-GESUS-APEX-T1 v1

Tier 1 only (dedicated)

LIVE

Test AUC

0.69

Val AUC

0.7353

Brier Score

0.2221

Features

450

Train N

4862

Test N

2022

Trained 2026-05-27

CQ-GESUS

CQ-GESUS-APEX-T1T2 v2

T1 + T2 (Optuna-tuned)

LIVE

Test AUC

0.6329

Val AUC

0.6597

Brier Score

0.2363

Features

462

Train N

7497

Test N

5713

Trained 2026-05-27

T1 AUC 0.6853 | ECE 0.0191 | 80 Optuna trials

Step 2 of 3

Model Training — CQ-GESUS-CS2-APEX v1.5

auto-refresh 15s

APEX v2 Retrain

DS (176.9.51.147)

COMPLETE

started 2026-05-27T10:47 UTC · 290 features · 31934 train rows

Complete

Benchmark (no tuning): Val 0.6856 Test 0.7062

Optuna trials — 160/160 100%

r1 80/80

best loss 0.63367

r2 50/50

best loss 0.63364

r3 30/30

best loss 0.63364

Val AUC (cal)0.69212

Test AUC (cal)0.7022

Calibrationisotonic

TierBELOW_MIN

Step 1 of 3

Data Pipeline

auto-refresh 30s

118528

Total matches

Jan 2012 – present

25655

Matches 2024–now

Primary training target

47819

/ 27455

Demos parsed

100% complete

47886

Feature vectors

47840 demo aggregates

✓ Scraping: 118,020 matches (Jan 2012 – present) — complete & live.

▶ Demos: 47819 parsed, running continuously. 2024+ first, then backfill.

■ Feature extraction: 509-feature pipeline scaling. Training at ~80% 2024 coverage.

● CQ-GESUS-CS2-APEX v1.5: Live (AUC 0.6928 isotonic)

Upcoming Predictions

CQ-GESUS-CS2-APEX v1.5 — calibrated probabilities + SHAP explainability

CS2-APEX v1.5

06 Jun · 08:00 European Pro League S…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

109.228

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.652

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.652

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.652

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1568.397

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 08:00 NODWIN Clutch Series 9

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-43.151

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.438

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.438

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.438

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1541.811

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 10:00 CCT 2026 Europe Serie…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

68.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.597

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.597

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.597

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1559.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 51.1% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 10:30 European Pro League S…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-31.779

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.454

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.454

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.454

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1535.106

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 10:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-17.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.476

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.476

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.476

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1483.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 44.0% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 10:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

40.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.557

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.557

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.557

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1500.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 47.4% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 11:00 CCT 2026 Europe Serie…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-75.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.394

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.394

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.394

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1459.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 42.1% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 11:00 NODWIN Clutch Series 9

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

74.266

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.605

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.605

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.605

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1593.261

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 11:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-24.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.466

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.466

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.466

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1500.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 43.1% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 11:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-53.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.424

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.424

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.424

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1480.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 42.0% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 12:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-39.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.444

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.444

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.444

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1500.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 42.4% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 12:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

2.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.503

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.503

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.503

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1500.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 45.8% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 13:00 CCT 2026 Europe Serie…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

103.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.644

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.644

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.644

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1619.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 51.8% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 13:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

90.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.627

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.627

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.627

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1543.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 53.0% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 13:30 IEM Cologne Major 202…

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-18.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.474

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.474

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.474

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1500.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 43.1% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 14:00 CCT 2026 Europe Serie…

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

5.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.507

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.507

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.507

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1510.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 47.8% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 14:00 NODWIN Clutch Series 9

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

16.714

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.524

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.524

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.524

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1521.819

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 17:00 CCT 2026 Europe Serie…

ex-Zero Tenacity 1483

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-58.0

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.417

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.417

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.417

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1483.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: 42.0% APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 17:00 NODWIN Clutch Series 9

APEX +100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

+100.0%

23.306

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.533

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.533

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.533

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1581.09

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

06 Jun · 17:30 ESEA Advanced Season …

APEX −100.0% Elo advantage +84.2% Elo implied probability +75.5% Elo win probability

Elo advantage

−100.0%

-46.022

Elo implied probability

+84.2%

0.434

Elo win probability

+75.5%

0.434

Schedule difficulty edge

−46.2%

-0.04

Avg opponent quality diff

−37.7%

-11.9

Consensus Win Prob Team1

+32.5%

0.434

Days since last match (T1)

+29.3%

1.0

Glicko2 rating (T2)

+26.6%

1423.25

Elo (T1)

+25.2%

1480.0

Glicko2 rating (T1)

+24.7%

1370.34

Base probability: % APEX auc=0.7024

CQ-GESUS-CS2-APEX v1.5 — SHAP values show why each prediction was made.

CounterQuant Intelligence

CQ-GESUS Model Suite

6 models 509 max features

GESUS — Game Environment Statistical Understanding System — six purpose-built models from general match outcome to full-signal market arbitrage.

CQ-GESUS

APEX

v1 · General Match Outcome

▶ Running

"The pinnacle of match prediction"

The flagship all-purpose match outcome predictor. Built on 50+ features including Elo, form, roster changes, and event tier. Designed as your reliable daily driver for general betting and predictions.

50+ features Hobbyist+

Feature extraction in progress · expected Q3 2026

CQ-GESUS

PHANTOM

v1 · Economy Specialist

Planned

"Invisible efficiency. Unseen edges."

Economy specialist that reveals invisible edges in team financial play. Analyzes 120+ demo-derived features like eco win rates, force-buy discipline, trade efficiency, and clutch economy management.

120+ features Pro+

Awaiting demo feature pipeline scale

CQ-GESUS

ORACLE

v1 · Deep Stats Ensemble

Planned

"Sees the unseen through 509 dimensions"

The deep-stats powerhouse. A 509-feature LightGBM ensemble that processes everything from KAST, utility impact, multi-kills, and advanced player synergies to deliver highly accurate predictions.

509 features Analyst+

Q3 2026

CQ-GESUS

NEXUS

v1 · Full Signal + Market

Planned

"Connects all data with live market reality"

The ultimate market-aware model. Combines all 509 demo/stats features with live Polymarket odds for real-time calibration, uncovering mispricings and delivering the strongest calibrated signals.

509 + market Enterprise

Q4 2026

CQ-GESUS

MIRAGE

v1 · Map-Specific Predictor

Planned

"Master of every map. Controls perception."

Map-specific prediction expert. Delivers precise per-map win probabilities by analyzing map pool depth, CT/T-side tendencies, economy patterns, and historical map performance.

Map-specific Analyst+

Q3 2026

CQ-GESUS

TITAN

v1 · Ultimate All-Rounder

Planned

"The complete battlefield dominator"

The complete battlefield dominator. An elite hybrid that blends the strongest signals from all GESUS models into one ultra-powerful all-round predictor for maximum accuracy.

All signals Enterprise

2027

Who Gets What

Access tiers unlock progressively more powerful models

Model	Free	Hobbyist	Pro	Analyst	Enterprise
APEXGeneral Match Outcome	—	✓	✓	✓	✓
PHANTOMEconomy Specialist	—	—	✓	✓	✓
ORACLEDeep Stats Ensemble	—	—	—	✓	✓
MIRAGEMap-Specific Predictor	—	—	—	✓	✓
NEXUSFull Signal + Market	—	—	—	—	✓
TITANUltimate All-Rounder	—	—	—	—	✓
Confidence score	—	basic	full	full	full
Market edge vs Polymarket	—	—	✓	✓	✓
API access	—	✓	✓	✓	✓