XDM vs NinJa — CounterQuant

Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2025 Closed Qualifier· T3 ONLINE BO3

FINAL 25 Apr 2025 19:29 UTC

XDM

Elo 1546

0 – 1

Winner: NinJa

NinJa

Elo 1542

CS2

CQ-GESUS CS2-APEX SHAP

AUC 0.702 54% CONF WRONG

XDM 53.5% 46.5% NinJa

Why this prediction?

+100.0 Elo advantage

+84.2 Elo implied probability

+75.5 Elo win probability

−46.2 Schedule difficulty edge

−37.7 Avg opponent quality diff

+32.5 Consensus Win Prob Team1

+29.3 Days since last match (T1)

+26.6 Glicko2 rating (T2)

+25.2 Elo (T1)

+24.7 Glicko2 rating (T1)

Match Highlights Demo parsed

Top Performers

Top Fragger

R1SK

kills

ADR 133.6

Top Assist

SPine

assists

0 flash

Best ADR

R1SK

133.6

avg dmg/rd

31K 12D

Best KAST

LGZOB003

100.0%

KAST

0K 0D

Most HS

R1SK

headshots

42% HS rate

Best K/D

R1SK

2.58

K/D ratio

31K 12D

mirage

8 – 13

3ct|5tvs7ct|6t

NinJa WON

Round Timeline

CT win T win Hover or click a round for details

Round — Player Stats

Player	K	D	A	HS	ADR	KAST

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
T SIDE
R1SK	31	12	4	2.58	42%	133.6	86.4%	0.95
Miami	21	15	7	1.40	57%	98.9	81.8%	0.66
SPine	16	17	12	0.94	31%	83.0	86.4%	0.48
Rage	13	18	7	0.72	46%	79.9	77.3%	0.4
SasiKi	7	15	6	0.47	57%	53.1	77.3%	0.3
CT SIDE
darkk	20	16	4	1.25	55%	95.9	77.3%	0.61
Kungao	16	17	6	0.94	75%	92.2	72.7%	0.53
Shadow	15	17	3	0.88	73%	84.9	72.7%	0.49
taidao	12	17	4	0.71	67%	65.6	63.6%	0.37
r1verLaKe	10	18	7	0.56	30%	63.5	77.3%	0.29

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
1ST HALF — T SIDE
R1SK	16	4	2	25%	133.8	90.0%	1.06
Miami	10	5	4	70%	111.3	80.0%	0.77
SPine	8	7	6	50%	93.2	90.0%	0.59
Rage	5	9	3	100%	66.8	80.0%	0.41
SasiKi	1	7	4	0%	33.7	80.0%	0.09
1ST HALF — CT SIDE
darkk	10	7	1	50%	107.9	70.0%	0.65
Kungao	3	8	2	67%	47.1	60.0%	0.22
Shadow	6	9	2	50%	83.1	70.0%	0.37
taidao	6	8	3	67%	81.7	60.0%	0.4
r1verLaKe	6	8	3	33%	79.7	90.0%	0.42

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
2ND HALF — CT SIDE
R1SK	15	8	2	60%	133.5	83.3%	0.86
Miami	11	10	3	45%	88.6	83.3%	0.57
SPine	8	10	6	12%	74.5	83.3%	0.39
Rage	8	9	4	12%	90.8	75.0%	0.42
SasiKi	6	8	2	67%	69.2	75.0%	0.42
2ND HALF — T SIDE
darkk	10	9	3	60%	85.9	83.3%	0.58
Kungao	13	9	4	77%	129.8	83.3%	0.78
Shadow	9	8	1	89%	86.3	75.0%	0.59
taidao	6	9	1	67%	52.2	66.7%	0.35
r1verLaKe	4	10	4	25%	50.0	66.7%	0.18

Highlights available for subscribers Sign in

Match Stats — All Players Combined DEMO PARSED

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Rds
⭐ R1SK t1	31	12	4	2.58	42%	133.6	86.4%	22
Miami t1	21	15	7	1.40	57%	98.9	81.8%	22
darkk t2	20	16	4	1.25	55%	95.9	77.3%	22
SPine t1	16	17	12	0.94	31%	83.0	86.4%	22
Kungao t2	16	17	6	0.94	75%	92.2	72.7%	22
Shadow t2	15	17	3	0.88	73%	84.9	72.7%	22
Rage t1	13	18	7	0.72	46%	79.9	77.3%	22
taidao t2	12	17	4	0.71	67%	65.6	63.6%	22
r1verLaKe t2	10	18	7	0.56	30%	63.5	77.3%	22
SasiKi t1	7	15	6	0.47	57%	53.1	77.3%	22
LGZOB003 t2	0	0	0	0.00	0%	—	100.0%	22

Player Awards

🔫

Top Fragger

R1SK

31 kills

🎯

Headshot Machine

R1SK

42% HS

31K

Per-Map Player Stats per map · sorted by kills

mirage 10 players

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
⭐ R1SK	31	12	4	2.58	42%	133.6	86.4%	0.95
Miami	21	15	7	1.40	57%	98.9	81.8%	0.66
SPine	16	17	12	0.94	31%	83.0	86.4%	0.48
Rage	13	18	7	0.72	46%	79.9	77.3%	0.4
SasiKi	7	15	6	0.47	57%	53.1	77.3%	0.3
darkk	20	16	4	1.25	55%	95.9	77.3%	0.61
Kungao	16	17	6	0.94	75%	92.2	72.7%	0.53
Shadow	15	17	3	0.88	73%	84.9	72.7%	0.49
taidao	12	17	4	0.71	67%	65.6	63.6%	0.37
r1verLaKe	10	18	7	0.56	30%	63.5	77.3%	0.29

mirage 23 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1

T $0 | CT $0

Round 2

T $3250 | CT $3250

Round 3

T $4300 | CT $4200

Round 4

T $17850 | CT $9500

Round 5

T $9050 | CT $25250

Round 6

T $2100 | CT $27500

Round 7

T $21800 | CT $28200

Round 8

T $5600 | CT $29750

Round 9

T $23000 | CT $31400

Round 10

T $23600 | CT $28950

Round 11

T $27550 | CT $17100

Round 12

T $26400 | CT $3300

Round 13

T $27850 | CT $21600

Round 14

T $27350 | CT $30400

Round 15

T $4500 | CT $4250

Round 16

T $19650 | CT $3000

Round 17

T $23900 | CT $19850

Round 18

T $24400 | CT $18750

Round 19

T $25200 | CT $22150

Round 20

T $19450 | CT $27900

Round 21

T $4150 | CT $28650

Round 22

T $23000 | CT $31150

Round 23

T $26950 | CT $27900

XDM Eco Rating: 11.8

Eco rounds

3/5 W (60%)

Force buy

0/2 W (0%)

Full buy

11 rounds

Avg Equip

$17768

Util Dmg

1.00

0.1/rd

Opening K

67%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 42%

Headshot% 58%

NinJa Eco Rating: 14.6

Eco rounds

0/5 W (0%)

Force buy

1/1 W (100%)

Full buy

11 rounds

Avg Equip

$20182

Util Dmg

2.00

0.1/rd

Opening K

65%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 47%

Headshot% 46%

CQ Feature Intelligence 534 features

null: 51.5% ⬡ Gold

Form (30d / 90d)

WR 30d

100.0% vs 50.0%

WR 90d

100.0% vs 50.0%

Rating 30d

1.08 vs 1.06

Form Slope

— vs ↑0.010

Map Intelligence

CT WR 90d

30.0% vs 47.7%

T WR 90d

64.7% vs 50.2%

Pool Depth

— vs 1.0

Team Dynamics

Days Rest

4.0d vs 5.0d

Roster Stab

— vs —

Synergy

— vs 0.74

Elo Δ +38

Elo Win% 55.4%

XDM Eco Rating: 11.8

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

60%

Force Win%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

58%

Trade Rate

42%

Opening K/Rd

67%

Util Dmg/Rd

0.1

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 61

NinJa Eco Rating: 14.6

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

Force Win%

100%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

46%

Trade Rate

47%

Opening K/Rd

65%

Util Dmg/Rd

0.1

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 56

Quantum Locked

Quantum signals require Uranium-tier data: <10% null features.

Current: 51.5% null Target: <10%

More features will unlock as demo parsing progresses

XDM

0 – 1

NinJa

Recent Meetings

XDM 0 – 1 NinJa Apr 2025

Player Performance

DEMO PARSED sorted by Impact

Impact = KPR×0.45 − DPR×0.30 + KAST×0.25 + HS%×0.15 + ADR/100×0.15 | KAST = Kill/Assist/Survived/Traded per round | Source: awpy + demoparser2

mirage 23 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win B Bomb planted Buy: Eco Force Buy Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1 1 — 1st half

T $0 | CT $0

T buy: — CT buy: —

Round 2 2 — 1st half

T $3250 | CT $3250

T buy: eco CT buy: eco

Round 3 3 — 1st half

T $4300 | CT $4200

T buy: eco CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 4 4 — 1st half

T $17850 | CT $9500

T buy: half_buy CT buy: force_buy

Round 5 5 — 1st half

T $9050 | CT $25250

T buy: force_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 6 6 — 1st half

T $2100 | CT $27500

T buy: eco CT buy: full_buy

Round 7 7 — 1st half

T $21800 | CT $28200

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 8 8 — 1st half

T $5600 | CT $29750

T buy: force_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 9 9 — 1st half

T $23000 | CT $31400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 10 10 — 1st half

T $23600 | CT $28950

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 11 11 — 1st half

T $27550 | CT $17100

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 12 12 — 1st half

T $26400 | CT $3300

T buy: full_buy CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 13 13 — 1st half

T $27850 | CT $21600

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy

Round 14 14 — 1st half

T $27350 | CT $30400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 15 15 — 1st half

T $4500 | CT $4250

T buy: eco CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 16 16 — 2nd half

T $19650 | CT $3000

T buy: half_buy CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 17 17 — 2nd half

T $23900 | CT $19850

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 18 18 — 2nd half

T $24400 | CT $18750

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 19 19 — 2nd half

T $25200 | CT $22150

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 20 20 — 2nd half

T $19450 | CT $27900

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 21 21 — 2nd half

T $4150 | CT $28650

T buy: eco CT buy: full_buy

Round 22 22 — 2nd half

T $23000 | CT $31150

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 23 23 — 2nd half

T $26950 | CT $27900

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted