Liquid vs 500 — CounterQuant

Birch Cup 2025· T3 ONLINE BO3

FINAL 27 Sep 2025 21:10 UTC

Liquid

Elo 1581

1 – 0

Winner: Liquid

500

Elo 1448

CS2

CQ-GESUS CS2-APEX SHAP

AUC 0.702 79% CONF WRONG

Liquid 21.2% 78.8% 500

Why this prediction?

−100.0 Elo advantage

+84.2 Elo implied probability

+75.5 Elo win probability

−46.2 Schedule difficulty edge

−37.7 Avg opponent quality diff

+32.5 Consensus Win Prob Team1

+29.3 Days since last match (T1)

+26.6 Glicko2 rating (T2)

+25.2 Elo (T1)

+24.7 Glicko2 rating (T1)

Match Highlights Demo parsed

Top Performers

Top Fragger

NertZ

kills

ADR 82.5

Top Assist

NAF-FLY

assists

0 flash

Best ADR

volt

118.4

avg dmg/rd

25K 16D

Best KAST

ultimate

83.3%

KAST

17K 16D

Most HS

volt

headshots

56% HS rate

Best K/D

volt

1.56

K/D ratio

25K 16D

ancient

13 – 9

7ct|6tvs4ct|5t

Liquid WON

Round Timeline

CT win T win Hover or click a round for details

Round — Player Stats

Player	K	D	A	HS	ADR	KAST

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
T SIDE
volt	25	16	2	1.56	56%	118.4	75.0%	0.72
REDSTAR	15	17	2	0.88	60%	71.5	70.8%	0.44
Rainwaker	15	20	2	0.75	53%	73.0	75.0%	0.41
CeRq	13	18	6	0.72	54%	76.1	83.3%	0.42
hampus	11	16	3	0.69	45%	61.1	62.5%	0.32
CT SIDE
NertZ	26	22	2	1.18	19%	82.5	79.2%	0.56
NAF-FLY	17	14	11	1.21	41%	97.9	75.0%	0.54
EliGE	17	17	3	1.00	59%	86.3	70.8%	0.5
ultimate	17	16	10	1.06	41%	93.5	83.3%	0.53
siuhy	16	16	6	1.00	19%	73.6	79.2%	0.44

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
1ST HALF — T SIDE
volt	15	11	1	60%	118.7	78.6%	0.71
REDSTAR	10	11	0	50%	66.7	71.4%	0.44
Rainwaker	9	12	1	56%	73.6	78.6%	0.42
CeRq	7	11	3	57%	65.7	85.7%	0.39
hampus	8	11	2	50%	76.6	57.1%	0.35
1ST HALF — CT SIDE
NertZ	19	13	1	11%	93.7	78.6%	0.69
NAF-FLY	11	8	9	36%	111.6	85.7%	0.62
EliGE	8	12	2	38%	73.2	64.3%	0.33
ultimate	10	10	4	20%	91.1	85.7%	0.49
siuhy	12	10	4	17%	88.4	85.7%	0.54

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
2ND HALF — CT SIDE
volt	10	5	1	50%	117.9	70.0%	0.73
REDSTAR	5	6	2	80%	78.3	70.0%	0.46
Rainwaker	6	8	1	50%	72.2	70.0%	0.39
CeRq	6	7	3	50%	90.7	80.0%	0.47
hampus	3	5	1	33%	39.5	70.0%	0.27
2ND HALF — T SIDE
NertZ	7	9	1	43%	66.9	80.0%	0.41
NAF-FLY	6	6	2	50%	78.7	60.0%	0.43
EliGE	9	5	1	78%	104.6	80.0%	0.73
ultimate	7	6	6	71%	96.9	80.0%	0.59
siuhy	4	6	2	25%	53.0	70.0%	0.29

Highlights available for subscribers Sign in

Match Stats — All Players Combined DEMO PARSED

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Rds
⭐ NertZ t1	26	22	2	1.18	19%	82.5	79.2%	24
volt t2	25	16	2	1.56	56%	118.4	75.0%	24
NAF-FLY t1	17	14	11	1.21	41%	97.9	75.0%	24
EliGE t1	17	17	3	1.00	59%	86.3	70.8%	24
ultimate t1	17	16	10	1.06	41%	93.5	83.3%	24
siuhy t1	16	16	6	1.00	19%	73.6	79.2%	24
REDSTAR t2	15	17	2	0.88	60%	71.5	70.8%	24
Rainwaker t2	15	20	2	0.75	53%	73.0	75.0%	24
CeRq t2	13	18	6	0.72	54%	76.1	83.3%	24
hampus t2	11	16	3	0.69	45%	61.1	62.5%	24

Player Awards

🔫

Top Fragger

NertZ

26 kills

🎯

Headshot Machine

NertZ

19% HS

26K

Per-Map Player Stats per map · sorted by kills

ancient 10 players

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
⭐ volt	25	16	2	1.56	56%	118.4	75.0%	0.72
REDSTAR	15	17	2	0.88	60%	71.5	70.8%	0.44
Rainwaker	15	20	2	0.75	53%	73.0	75.0%	0.41
CeRq	13	18	6	0.72	54%	76.1	83.3%	0.42
hampus	11	16	3	0.69	45%	61.1	62.5%	0.32
NertZ	26	22	2	1.18	19%	82.5	79.2%	0.56
NAF-FLY	17	14	11	1.21	41%	97.9	75.0%	0.54
EliGE	17	17	3	1.00	59%	86.3	70.8%	0.5
ultimate	17	16	10	1.06	41%	93.5	83.3%	0.53
siuhy	16	16	6	1.00	19%	73.6	79.2%	0.44

ancient 25 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1

T $0 | CT $0

Round 2

T $1000 | CT $22450

Round 3

T $23000 | CT $24950

Round 4

T $25200 | CT $21850

Round 5

T $25000 | CT $26000

Round 6

T $8300 | CT $27700

Round 7

T $25100 | CT $25550

Round 8

T $6650 | CT $29350

Round 9

T $25200 | CT $29700

Round 10

T $24400 | CT $27700

Round 11

T $27350 | CT $2150

Round 12

T $27950 | CT $23400

Round 13

T $27950 | CT $23400

Round 14

T $27950 | CT $23400

Round 15

T $27950 | CT $23400

Round 16

T $4750 | CT $4300

Round 17

T $18800 | CT $9250

Round 18

T $22550 | CT $11700

Round 19

T $24500 | CT $28600

Round 20

T $25400 | CT $20800

Round 21

T $18300 | CT $26250

Round 22

T $26000 | CT $18550

Round 23

T $15600 | CT $27150

Round 24

T $1600 | CT $28500

Round 25

T $22650 | CT $31050

Liquid Eco Rating: 3.5

Eco rounds

0/2 W (0%)

Force buy

0/2 W (0%)

Full buy

16 rounds

Avg Equip

$22381

Util Dmg

2.00

0.1/rd

Opening K

85%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 33%

Headshot% 35%

Liquid Eco Rating: 13.8

Eco rounds

1/3 W (33%)

Force buy

1/2 W (50%)

Full buy

16 rounds

Avg Equip

$20131

Util Dmg

2.00

0.1/rd

Opening K

43%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 41%

Headshot% 55%

CQ Feature Intelligence 534 features

null: 35.8% ⬡ Gold

Form (30d / 90d)

WR 30d

77.8% vs 52.9%

WR 90d

71.4% vs 41.9%

Rating 30d

1.08 vs 1.13

Form Slope

↑0.050 vs ↑0.020

Map Intelligence

CT WR 90d

52.8% vs 54.2%

T WR 90d

46.5% vs 46.3%

Pool Depth

1.0 vs 3.0

Team Dynamics

Days Rest

7.0d vs —d

Roster Stab

— vs —

Synergy

1.0 vs 0.51

Elo Δ -117

Elo Win% 33.8%

Liquid Eco Rating: 3.5

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

Force Win%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

35%

Trade Rate

33%

Opening K/Rd

85%

Util Dmg/Rd

0.1

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 70

Liquid Eco Rating: 13.8

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

33%

Force Win%

50%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

55%

Trade Rate

41%

Opening K/Rd

43%

Util Dmg/Rd

0.1

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 60

Quantum Locked

Quantum signals require Uranium-tier data: <10% null features.

Current: 35.8% null Target: <10%

More features will unlock as demo parsing progresses

Liquid

2 – 0

500

Recent Meetings

Liquid 2 – 0 500 Sep 2025 Liquid 1 – 0 500 Sep 2025

Player Performance

DEMO PARSED sorted by Impact

Impact = KPR×0.45 − DPR×0.30 + KAST×0.25 + HS%×0.15 + ADR/100×0.15 | KAST = Kill/Assist/Survived/Traded per round | Source: awpy + demoparser2

ancient 25 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win B Bomb planted Buy: Eco Force Buy Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1 1 — 1st half

T $0 | CT $0

T buy: — CT buy: —

Round 2 2 — 1st half

T $1000 | CT $22450

T buy: eco CT buy: half_buy

Round 3 3 — 1st half

T $23000 | CT $24950

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 4 4 — 1st half

T $25200 | CT $21850

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 5 5 — 1st half

T $25000 | CT $26000

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 6 6 — 1st half

T $8300 | CT $27700

T buy: force_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 7 7 — 1st half

T $25100 | CT $25550

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 8 8 — 1st half

T $6650 | CT $29350

T buy: force_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 9 9 — 1st half

T $25200 | CT $29700

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 10 10 — 1st half

T $24400 | CT $27700

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 11 11 — 1st half

T $27350 | CT $2150

T buy: full_buy CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 12 12 — 1st half

T $27950 | CT $23400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 13 13 — 1st half

T $27950 | CT $23400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 14 14 — 1st half

T $27950 | CT $23400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 15 15 — 1st half

T $27950 | CT $23400

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 16 16 — 2nd half

T $4750 | CT $4300

T buy: eco CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 17 17 — 2nd half

T $18800 | CT $9250

T buy: half_buy CT buy: force_buy Bomb planted

Round 18 18 — 2nd half

T $22550 | CT $11700

T buy: full_buy CT buy: force_buy Bomb planted

Round 19 19 — 2nd half

T $24500 | CT $28600

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 20 20 — 2nd half

T $25400 | CT $20800

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy

Round 21 21 — 2nd half

T $18300 | CT $26250

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 22 22 — 2nd half

T $26000 | CT $18550

T buy: full_buy CT buy: half_buy

Round 23 23 — 2nd half

T $15600 | CT $27150

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 24 24 — 2nd half

T $1600 | CT $28500

T buy: eco CT buy: full_buy

Round 25 25 — 2nd half

T $22650 | CT $31050

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted