Vagrants vs Bad News Capybaras

ESL Challenger League Season 49 North America· A-TIER ONLINE BO3

FINAL 27 Mar 2025 22:47 UTC

Vagrants

Elo 1472

1 – 0

Winner: Vagrants

Bad News Capybaras

Elo 1559

CS2

CQ-GESUS CS2-APEX SHAP

AUC 0.702 58% CONF WRONG

Vagrants 42.5% 57.5% Bad News Capybaras

Why this prediction?

−100.0 Elo advantage

+84.2 Elo implied probability

+75.5 Elo win probability

−46.2 Schedule difficulty edge

−37.7 Avg opponent quality diff

+32.5 Consensus Win Prob Team1

+29.3 Days since last match (T1)

+26.6 Glicko2 rating (T2)

+25.2 Elo (T1)

+24.7 Glicko2 rating (T1)

Match Highlights Demo parsed

Top Performers

Top Fragger

1Sandman

kills

ADR 115.6

Top Assist

GraveKevin

assists

0 flash

Best ADR

GraveKevin

136.4

avg dmg/rd

21K 16D

Best KAST

1Sandman

85.7%

KAST

24K 11D

Most HS

GraveKevin

headshots

71% HS rate

Best K/D

1Sandman

2.18

K/D ratio

24K 11D

dust2

13 – 7

5ct|8tvs4ct|3t

Vagrants WON

Round Timeline

CT win T win Hover or click a round for details

Round — Player Stats

Player	K	D	A	HS	ADR	KAST

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
T SIDE
GraveKevin	21	16	7	1.31	71%	136.4	71.4%	0.71
jchancE	12	16	6	0.75	50%	83.8	66.7%	0.4
mdsz	10	11	5	0.91	60%	69.6	71.4%	0.43
Gabe	9	15	5	0.60	56%	56.6	57.1%	0.29
cbass	9	14	3	0.64	22%	36.9	57.1%	0.22
CT SIDE
1Sandman	24	11	2	2.18	54%	115.6	85.7%	0.83
brett	15	14	4	1.07	60%	75.4	76.2%	0.52
Seb	14	11	2	1.27	50%	66.9	71.4%	0.5
mason	14	17	2	0.82	50%	79.0	61.9%	0.41
consti	6	10	4	0.60	67%	46.6	71.4%	0.33

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
1ST HALF — T SIDE
GraveKevin	10	7	2	50%	120.7	77.8%	0.72
jchancE	4	7	3	50%	65.3	66.7%	0.31
mdsz	7	5	2	43%	100.0	66.7%	0.56
Gabe	1	8	3	100%	36.1	44.4%	0.1
cbass	2	7	2	0%	42.6	44.4%	0.04
1ST HALF — CT SIDE
1Sandman	8	4	1	62%	86.3	88.9%	0.71
brett	10	5	2	60%	118.4	88.9%	0.82
Seb	7	4	0	14%	66.1	66.7%	0.5
mason	6	7	1	50%	77.2	77.8%	0.45
consti	3	4	3	33%	67.1	77.8%	0.36

Player	K	D	A	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
2ND HALF — CT SIDE
GraveKevin	11	9	5	91%	148.2	66.7%	0.71
jchancE	8	9	3	50%	97.6	66.7%	0.46
mdsz	3	6	3	100%	46.8	75.0%	0.37
Gabe	8	7	2	50%	71.9	66.7%	0.47
cbass	7	7	1	29%	32.7	66.7%	0.35
2ND HALF — T SIDE
1Sandman	16	7	1	50%	137.5	83.3%	0.91
brett	5	9	2	60%	43.1	66.7%	0.28
Seb	7	7	2	86%	67.5	75.0%	0.51
mason	8	10	1	50%	80.3	50.0%	0.37
consti	3	6	1	100%	31.2	66.7%	0.33

Highlights available for subscribers Sign in

Match Stats — All Players Combined DEMO PARSED

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Rds
⭐ 1Sandman t2	24	11	2	2.18	54%	115.6	85.7%	21
GraveKevin t1	21	16	7	1.31	71%	136.4	71.4%	21
brett t2	15	14	4	1.07	60%	75.4	76.2%	21
Seb t2	14	11	2	1.27	50%	66.9	71.4%	21
mason t2	14	17	2	0.82	50%	79.0	61.9%	21
jchancE t1	12	16	6	0.75	50%	83.8	66.7%	21
mdsz t1	10	11	5	0.91	60%	69.6	71.4%	21
Gabe t1	9	15	5	0.60	56%	56.6	57.1%	21
cbass t1	9	14	3	0.64	22%	36.9	57.1%	21
consti t2	6	10	4	0.60	67%	46.6	71.4%	21

Player Awards

🔫

Top Fragger

1Sandman

24 kills

🎯

Headshot Machine

1Sandman

54% HS

24K

Per-Map Player Stats per map · sorted by kills

dust2 10 players

Player	K	D	A	K/D	HS%	ADR	KAST%	Impact
⭐ GraveKevin	21	16	7	1.31	71%	136.4	71.4%	0.71
jchancE	12	16	6	0.75	50%	83.8	66.7%	0.4
mdsz	10	11	5	0.91	60%	69.6	71.4%	0.43
Gabe	9	15	5	0.60	56%	56.6	57.1%	0.29
cbass	9	14	3	0.64	22%	36.9	57.1%	0.22
1Sandman	24	11	2	2.18	54%	115.6	85.7%	0.83
brett	15	14	4	1.07	60%	75.4	76.2%	0.52
Seb	14	11	2	1.27	50%	66.9	71.4%	0.5
mason	14	17	2	0.82	50%	79.0	61.9%	0.41
consti	6	10	4	0.60	67%	46.6	71.4%	0.33

dust2 21 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1

T $3250 | CT $3250

Round 2

T $4200 | CT $4100

Round 3

T $3400 | CT $21700

Round 4

T $19600 | CT $24900

Round 5

T $21450 | CT $21450

Round 6

T $21900 | CT $14800

Round 7

T $24800 | CT $2300

Round 8

T $27050 | CT $25800

Round 9

T $27250 | CT $29200

Round 10

T $27450 | CT $23350

Round 11

T $27350 | CT $29200

Round 12

T $27350 | CT $25050

Round 13

T $27850 | CT $24050

Round 14

T $4200 | CT $4400

Round 15

T $20350 | CT $10650

Round 16

T $21750 | CT $4800

Round 17

T $16350 | CT $28050

Round 18

T $1100 | CT $30150

Round 19

T $22050 | CT $30150

Round 20

T $17150 | CT $30550

Round 21

T $28650 | CT $30000

Vagrants Eco Rating: 9.6

Eco rounds

2/5 W (40%)

Full buy

8 rounds

Avg Equip

$18786

Util Dmg

0.00

0.0/rd

Opening K

85%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 32%

Headshot% 56%

Bad News Capybaras Eco Rating: 9.3

Eco rounds

2/5 W (40%)

Force buy

0/1 W (0%)

Full buy

12 rounds

Avg Equip

$19900

Util Dmg

4.00

0.2/rd

Opening K

61%/rd

Trade Kill Rate 27%

Headshot% 53%

CQ Feature Intelligence 534 features

null: 43.1% ⬡ Gold

Form (30d / 90d)

WR 30d

50.0% vs 45.5%

WR 90d

44.8% vs 39.3%

Rating 30d

1.08 vs 0.91

Form Slope

— vs ↑0.020

Map Intelligence

CT WR 90d

51.6% vs 50.0%

T WR 90d

44.1% vs 46.0%

Pool Depth

2.0 vs 2.0

Team Dynamics

Days Rest

1.0d vs 2.0d

Roster Stab

— vs —

Synergy

0.63 vs 1.45

Elo Δ -91

Elo Win% 37.2%

Vagrants Eco Rating: 9.6

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

40%

Force Win%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

56%

Trade Rate

32%

Opening K/Rd

85%

Util Dmg/Rd

—

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 45

Bad News Capybaras Eco Rating: 9.3

Economy Mastery

Eco Win%

40%

Force Win%

Kill Quality

Headshot%

53%

Trade Rate

27%

Opening K/Rd

61%

Util Dmg/Rd

0.2

Multi-Kill Rounds

Multi-Kill Score: 53

Quantum Locked

Quantum signals require Uranium-tier data: <10% null features.

Current: 43.1% null Target: <10%

More features will unlock as demo parsing progresses

Vagrants

2 – 1

Bad News Capybaras

Recent Meetings

Vagrants 0 – 3 Bad News Capybaras Apr 2025 Bad News Capybaras 0 – 1 Vagrants Mar 2025 Vagrants 1 – 0 Bad News Capybaras Mar 2025

Player Performance

DEMO PARSED sorted by Impact

Impact = KPR×0.45 − DPR×0.30 + KAST×0.25 + HS%×0.15 + ADR/100×0.15 | KAST = Kill/Assist/Survived/Traded per round | Source: awpy + demoparser2

dust2 21 rounds

■ CT Win ■ T Win B Bomb planted Buy: Eco Force Buy Click a round to see kill feed

Round 1 1 — 1st half

T $3250 | CT $3250

T buy: eco CT buy: eco

Round 2 2 — 1st half

T $4200 | CT $4100

T buy: eco CT buy: eco

Round 3 3 — 1st half

T $3400 | CT $21700

T buy: eco CT buy: half_buy

Round 4 4 — 1st half

T $19600 | CT $24900

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 5 5 — 1st half

T $21450 | CT $21450

T buy: half_buy CT buy: half_buy Bomb planted

Round 6 6 — 1st half

T $21900 | CT $14800

T buy: half_buy CT buy: half_buy

Round 7 7 — 1st half

T $24800 | CT $2300

T buy: full_buy CT buy: eco

Round 8 8 — 1st half

T $27050 | CT $25800

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 9 9 — 1st half

T $27250 | CT $29200

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 10 10 — 1st half

T $27450 | CT $23350

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 11 11 — 1st half

T $27350 | CT $29200

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 12 12 — 1st half

T $27350 | CT $25050

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy Bomb planted

Round 13 13 — 1st half

T $27850 | CT $24050

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 14 14 — 1st half

T $4200 | CT $4400

T buy: eco CT buy: eco Bomb planted

Round 15 15 — 1st half

T $20350 | CT $10650

T buy: half_buy CT buy: force_buy Bomb planted

Round 16 16 — 2nd half

T $21750 | CT $4800

T buy: half_buy CT buy: eco

Round 17 17 — 2nd half

T $16350 | CT $28050

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 18 18 — 2nd half

T $1100 | CT $30150

T buy: eco CT buy: full_buy

Round 19 19 — 2nd half

T $22050 | CT $30150

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 20 20 — 2nd half

T $17150 | CT $30550

T buy: half_buy CT buy: full_buy

Round 21 21 — 2nd half

T $28650 | CT $30000

T buy: full_buy CT buy: full_buy